ARI Movement’s 9th Annual Security Conference titled “Democratization and Security in Central Eurasia” will take place on June 14-15, 2007 at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Istanbul.

ARI Movement’s 9th Annual Security Conference titled “Democratization and Security in Central Eurasia” will take place on June 14-15, 2007 at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Istanbul.

“Central Eurasia” covers the Caucasus and the Caspian Basin, thus including lands of Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia, as well as northern parts of Afghanistan and Iran, and Central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The region has been a favorite area for researchers and political theoreticians as a land of civilizations, with its vast geographical landscape gifted by rich natural resources. However, this geopolitical significance also brings with it political instability and economic rivalry. Today, Central Eurasia is inevitably the center stage of a geopolitical power-game with the intensification of energy and in light of the fact that the U.S. war on terrorism is located in Afghanistan at the very heart of this geography.

Central Eurasia, once termed as the “heartland” of the world is struggling with socio-economic underdevelopment, democratic instability, religious fundamentalism, and terrorism. What’s more, Iran’s nuclear ambitions are likely to trigger a new round of a nuclear armament race in the region. Iran expands its influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Afghanistan and Syria, empowered by the growing Shiite-Sunni divide and high oil prices. At the risk of escalating the crisis into a major conflagration with the Western powers, Iran removed U.N. seals on its uranium enrichment equipment to resume nuclear research at the beginning of 2006. Though there is no definite information about Tehran’s current stage of uranium enrichment program, experts say that Tehran is close to acquiring nuclear weapons in five to ten years time. The nuclear stand off with Iran is therefore among the greatest political risks of 2007 in Central Eurasia.

Another problematic issue is the future of Afghanistan. As a crossroads of trade and energy routes, Afghanistan is attributed high geopolitical importance. However, the country faces various problems such as poverty, Islamic radicalism, terrorism and drug trafficking. From a broader perspective, the Afghan case is considered as a litmus test for the Atlantic alliance since it is the NATO’s first mission outside Europe in the post-Cold War period. The failure of the Afghan case is likely to undermine NATO’s role as a reliable actor in foreign affairs, eroding multilateralism and the rule of international law. On the other hand, the threats emanating from Afghanistan pose a risk not only for the neighboring environment but also for the international community in general.

High world prices of oil and the acknowledgement by the U.S. that a politically unstable Central Eurasia region could provide further safe havens for terrorists have caused this region to become a highly strategic area. Both traditional balance of power rivalries and geo-economic rivalry over energy sources prevail. Moreover, Russia’s moves in terms of oil and gas transport has caused an additional concern in Europe; and China and India, both rising powers needing energy, are new customers for the energy resources of Central Eurasia.

ARI Movement’s 9th International Security and Democratization Conference will cover Central Asia with a focus on Iran, Afghanistan, and energy security. As always our panelists and discussants will represent different perspectives while exploring these issues. We would be delighted if you accept to participate in this conference.